Projecting HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years in Bhutan using Holt’s double exponential smoothing model

Authors

  • Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  • Thabani NYONI Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Keywords:

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, HIV prevalence

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years for Bhutan from 1990 to 2020 to predict future trends of HIV prevalence over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years will generally decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, policymakers must improve HIV case detection among key populations and implement relevant HIV preventive interventions recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

References

Becasen J.S., Denard C.L., Mullins M.M., Higa DH & Sipe TA (2019). Estimating the Prevalence of

HIV and Sexual Behaviors Among the US Transgender Population: A Systematic Review and MetaAnalysis, 2006– 2017. Am J Public Health 2019; 109(1): e1–e8.

https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304727 PMID: 30496000[2] Khandu L., Tobgay T & McFarland W (2021). Social, Cultural and Economic determinants of

HIV/AIDS: A community case report of Bhutan. Social Determinants of Health 2021; 6:e28

https://doi.org/10.22037/sdh. v6i1.31121

Khandu L., Kinley K., Norbu Y.C., Tobgay T., Tsheten T & Gyeltshen T (2022) Population size

estimation of transgender womenand men in Bhutan. PLoS ONE 17(10): e0271853.https://doi.

org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271853

National HIV, AIDS and STIs Control Program, Bhutan. Sexual Behaviors and Networks in

Thimphu: A Rapid Assessment. Bangkok, Thailand: UNAIDS; 2010. Accessed on 5 March 2022 at

https://www. aidsdatahub.org/sites/default/files/resource/sexual-behaviors-networks-thimphubhutan-rapidassessment.pdf.

National HIV, AIDS and STIs Control Programme, Bhutan. Formative Assessment on the Feasibility

of an Integrated Biological and Behavioral Survey among Key and Vulnerable Populations in Bhutan

Bangkok, Thailand: UNAIDS; 2015. Accessed on 5 March 2022 at

https://www.aidsdatahub.org/ resource/formative-assessment-feasibility-of-ibbs-key-and-vulnerablepopulations-bhutan.

National HIV, AIDS and STIs Control Programme, Bhutan. Integrated Biological and Behavioral

Surveillance (IBBS) Surveys among Vulnerable and Key Populations at Higher Risk in Bhutan.

Thimphu, Bhutan: Ministry of Health; 2016. Accessed on 5 March 2022 at

https://www.moh.gov.bt/wp-content/ uploads/ict-files/2021/01/IBBS_2015_Report_HIV-AIDS.pdf.

National HIV, AIDS and STIs Control Program, Bhutan. HIV/AIDS Behaviour Survey among the

General Population in Bhutan, 2006. Bangkok, Thailand: UNAIDS; 2008. Accessed on 5 March

at https://www.aidsdatahub.org/resource/hiv-aids-bss-bhutan-2006-technical-report

Ministry of Health. Global AIDS Response Report for Bhutan. Bangkok: UNAIDS; 2014.

UNAIDS (2018). Transactional sex and HIV risk: from analysis to action. UNAIDS [Internet].

Geneva, Switzerland: UNAIDS; 2018; 1–42 [cited 29 January 2021]. Available from:

https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/m edia_asset/transactional-sex-and-hivrisk_en.pdf

Downloads

Published

2024-05-30

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Projecting HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years in Bhutan using Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. (2024). Texas Journal of Medical Science, 32, 133-140. https://zienjournals.com/index.php/tjms/article/view/5558

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 > >>