Projection of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years in Chile using Holt’s double exponential smoothing model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62480/tjms.2024.vol35.pp11-17Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, HIV prevalenceAbstract
This study uses annual time series data of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years for Chile from 1990 to 2020 to predict future trends of HIV prevalence over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years will continue on an upward trend over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to scale up demand generation for all HIV services especially among key populations and vulnerable groups.
References
UNAIDS (2020). UNAIDS DATA pp. 1-4
Pablo Ferrer., Carla Bastias., Carlos Beltrán., and Alejandro Afani (2022). Diagnosis of HIV
infection mass community rapid testing in Santiago, J. Clinical Virology, Plus 2(2022)100064
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
User Rights
Under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC-BY-NC), the author (s) and users are free to share (copy, distribute and transmit the contribution).
Rights of Authors
Authors retain the following rights:
1. Copyright and other proprietary rights relating to the article, such as patent rights,
2. the right to use the substance of the article in future works, including lectures and books,
3. the right to reproduce the article for own purposes, provided the copies are not offered for sale,
4. the right to self-archive the article.
