##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.main##
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years for Cameroon from 1990 to 2020 to predict future trends of HIV prevalence over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear method. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, policy makers are encouraged to scale up HIV case detection, prevention and treatment particularly among key populations and vulnerable groups in the society.
Keywords
##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.details##
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
References
- Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic
- analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 The Lancet, 2020. 396(10258): p. 1204–1222.
- Cameroon MoPH (2016). Health Sector Strategy 2016–2027.
- ICF., N.I.o.S.C.a. 2018 Cameroon DHS Summary Report. NIS and ICF: Rockville, Maryland, USA;
- International IN. d.l.S.I.e.I., Enquête Démographique et de Santé et à Indicateurs Multiples du
- Cameroun 2011. 2012: Calverton, Maryland, USA.
- Macro IN.d.l.S.I.e.O., Enquête Démographique et de Santé du Cameroun 2004. 2004: Calverton,
- Maryland, USA.[6] Ministry of Health (MOH). D.o.H.O.R.D., Cameroon Population-based HIV Impact Assessment
- (CAMPHIA) 2017–2018: final report. Yaounde, Cameroon; 2020.
- Broder S (2010). The development of antiretroviral therapy and its impact on the HIV-1/AIDS
- pandemic. Antiviral Res. 2010; 85(1):1–18.
- Hariri S, McKenna MT. Epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus in the United States. Clin
- Microbiol Rev, 2007. 20(3): p. 478 – 88, table of contents.