##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.sidebar##

Download
pdf
Statistic
Read Counter : 3 Download : 6

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.main##

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years for Bhutan from 1990 to 2020 to predict future trends of HIV prevalence over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years will generally decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, policymakers must improve HIV case detection among key populations and implement relevant HIV preventive interventions recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Keywords

Exponential smoothing Forecasting HIV prevalence

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.details##

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

How to Cite
Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, & Thabani NYONI. (2024). Projecting HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years in Bhutan using Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. Texas Journal of Medical Science, 32, 133–140. Retrieved from https://zienjournals.com/index.php/tjms/article/view/5558

References

  1. Becasen J.S., Denard C.L., Mullins M.M., Higa DH & Sipe TA (2019). Estimating the Prevalence of
  2. HIV and Sexual Behaviors Among the US Transgender Population: A Systematic Review and MetaAnalysis, 2006– 2017. Am J Public Health 2019; 109(1): e1–e8.
  3. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304727 PMID: 30496000[2] Khandu L., Tobgay T & McFarland W (2021). Social, Cultural and Economic determinants of
  4. HIV/AIDS: A community case report of Bhutan. Social Determinants of Health 2021; 6:e28
  5. https://doi.org/10.22037/sdh. v6i1.31121
  6. Khandu L., Kinley K., Norbu Y.C., Tobgay T., Tsheten T & Gyeltshen T (2022) Population size
  7. estimation of transgender womenand men in Bhutan. PLoS ONE 17(10): e0271853.https://doi.
  8. org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271853
  9. National HIV, AIDS and STIs Control Program, Bhutan. Sexual Behaviors and Networks in
  10. Thimphu: A Rapid Assessment. Bangkok, Thailand: UNAIDS; 2010. Accessed on 5 March 2022 at
  11. https://www. aidsdatahub.org/sites/default/files/resource/sexual-behaviors-networks-thimphubhutan-rapidassessment.pdf.
  12. National HIV, AIDS and STIs Control Programme, Bhutan. Formative Assessment on the Feasibility
  13. of an Integrated Biological and Behavioral Survey among Key and Vulnerable Populations in Bhutan
  14. Bangkok, Thailand: UNAIDS; 2015. Accessed on 5 March 2022 at
  15. https://www.aidsdatahub.org/ resource/formative-assessment-feasibility-of-ibbs-key-and-vulnerablepopulations-bhutan.
  16. National HIV, AIDS and STIs Control Programme, Bhutan. Integrated Biological and Behavioral
  17. Surveillance (IBBS) Surveys among Vulnerable and Key Populations at Higher Risk in Bhutan.
  18. Thimphu, Bhutan: Ministry of Health; 2016. Accessed on 5 March 2022 at
  19. https://www.moh.gov.bt/wp-content/ uploads/ict-files/2021/01/IBBS_2015_Report_HIV-AIDS.pdf.
  20. National HIV, AIDS and STIs Control Program, Bhutan. HIV/AIDS Behaviour Survey among the
  21. General Population in Bhutan, 2006. Bangkok, Thailand: UNAIDS; 2008. Accessed on 5 March
  22. at https://www.aidsdatahub.org/resource/hiv-aids-bss-bhutan-2006-technical-report
  23. Ministry of Health. Global AIDS Response Report for Bhutan. Bangkok: UNAIDS; 2014.
  24. UNAIDS (2018). Transactional sex and HIV risk: from analysis to action. UNAIDS [Internet].
  25. Geneva, Switzerland: UNAIDS; 2018; 1–42 [cited 29 January 2021]. Available from:
  26. https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/m edia_asset/transactional-sex-and-hivrisk_en.pdf

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 > >>