Forecasting Maternal Mortality For Djibouti Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62480/tjms.2026.vol55.pp78-87Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Djibouti from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue on a downward path and reach levels around 63 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.Downloads
Published
2026-10-21
Issue
Section
Articles
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
User Rights
Under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC-BY-NC), the author (s) and users are free to share (copy, distribute and transmit the contribution).
Rights of Authors
Authors retain the following rights:
1. Copyright and other proprietary rights relating to the article, such as patent rights,
2. the right to use the substance of the article in future works, including lectures and books,
3. the right to reproduce the article for own purposes, provided the copies are not offered for sale,
4. the right to self-archive the article.
How to Cite
Forecasting Maternal Mortality For Djibouti Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Model. (2026). Texas Journal of Medical Science, 55, 78-87. https://doi.org/10.62480/tjms.2026.vol55.pp78-87
