Detection Of Future Trends Of Maternal Mortality In Costa Rica Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Approach

Authors

  • Smartson. P. NYONI Independent Researcher & Medical Doctor, Harare, Zimbabwe
  • Thabani NYONI Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62480/tjms.2026.vol54.pp49-59

Keywords:

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Costa Rica from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.3 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will hover around 29 deaths per 100 000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of maternal deaths and pay attention to quality improvement in all health facilities.

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Published

2026-10-20

Issue

Vol. 54 (2026): TJMS

Section

Articles

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How to Cite

Detection Of Future Trends Of Maternal Mortality In Costa Rica Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Approach. (2026). Texas Journal of Medical Science, 54, 49-59. https://doi.org/10.62480/tjms.2026.vol54.pp49-59