Determining Future Trends Of Maternal Mortality For The Fiji Islands Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Authors

  • Smartson. P. NYONI Independent Researcher & Medical Doctor, Harare, Zimbabwe
  • Thabani NYONI

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62480/tjms.2026.vol58.pp16-25

Keywords:

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Fiji from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.3 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to decline from 36.6 to 32.5 deaths per 100 000 live births over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of maternal mortality and implement routine quality improvement initiatives

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Published

2026-10-21

Issue

Vol. 58 (2026): TJMS

Section

Articles

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How to Cite

Determining Future Trends Of Maternal Mortality For The Fiji Islands Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Technique. (2026). Texas Journal of Medical Science, 58, 16-25. https://doi.org/10.62480/tjms.2026.vol58.pp16-25